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ADBI Working Paper Series

The Impossible Trinity and Capital
Flows in East Asia

Stephen Grenville

No. 319
November 2011

Asian Development Bank Institute

Stephen Grenville is a visiting fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in
Sydney, Australia.
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the CAB/ADBI conference Growth and
Integration in Asia, held in Adelaide, Australia, on 8–9 July 2011.
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the views or policies of ADBI, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of
Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of
the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of
their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series;
the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working
papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages
readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the
citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication.

Suggested citation:

Grenville, S. 2011. The Impossible Trinity and Capital Flows in East Asia. ADBI Working
Paper No. 319. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available:

Please contact the authors for information about this paper:
Email: sgrenville@lowyinstitute.org

Asian Development Bank Institute
Kasumigaseki Building 8F
3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-6008, Japan
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+81-3-3593-5500
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info@adbi.org

© 2011 Asian Development Bank Institute

ADBI Working Paper 319

Grenville

Abstract
The Impossible Trinity doctrine still holds a powerful sway over policymakers, advisors
(particularly the International Monetary Fund [IMF]) and academia. In East Asia over the past
decade, however, most countries have been able to maintain open capital markets,
monetary policy independence, and a fair degree of management over their exchange rates.
This is because the Impossible Trinity model does not fit the actual circumstances very
closely. Capital flows are dominated by factors other than interest differentials, external
inflows have been successfully...
ADBI Working Paper Series
The Impossible Trinity and Capital
Flows in East Asia
Stephen Grenville
No. 319
November 2011
Asian Development Bank Institute
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