Economics Bulletin

Được đăng lên bởi Sen Sophorn
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Economics Bulletin, 2012, Vol. 32 No. 3 pp. 1821-1830

1. Introduction
With volatile primary energy prices and political instability in oil and gas producing
countries, coal has again gained prominence in the international energy sector. The
abundance and stability in supply, diversity in supplying nations, relatively cheap prices and
continuous advancement in clean coal technology have all contributed to make coal a reliable
primary energy resource. Due to the growing import demand for coal and associated
development of seaborne coal trade, the number of coal exporters has increased and the
dominance of any single supplier has decreased. These developments may lead to a more
competitive market for coal.
The market structure of coal was examined in a number of studies under the partial
equilibrium modeling framework. For example, in 1984, Kolstad and Abbey (1984) found
that their World Coal Trade Model produces trade patterns that most accurately simulate the
actual patterns under the Australia-South Africa duopoly assumption. The competitive
formulation performed poorly. Graham, Thorpe and Hogan (1999) simulated coking coal
trade patterns in 1996 and also found that the international coking coal market was noncompetitive. By 2008, Haftendorn and Holz (2008) found that their modeling results appear
to be closer to reality under the perfect competition assumption than the Cournot oligopoly
assumption. Despite the differences in the modeling strategies of these studies, these results
suggest that the structure of the international coal market may have changed in the last 20
The market for coal is of increasing significance in policy discussions on carbon reduction.
Evidence-based evaluation of policies at an international level in this context arguably
requires the use of multi-country, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE)
economic models. CGE models are particularly useful when it is essential to account for the
substitution possibilities that exist among the primary energy sources. Also, CGE models are
commonly used to analyze the inter-industry effects of various policy shocks. In most CGE
applications, it is a customary practice to employ the assumption of perfect competition.
Various studies have examined the sensitivity of CGE model outcomes to the market
structure specification. However, the conclusions from these studies are not unified. For
example, Willenbockel (2004) finds in a stylized prototype CGE model that the simulated...
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