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Business Analysis and Evaluation Traphaco JSC

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[Pharmaceutical Industry]

Traphaco Joint Stock Company
[[[[[[

[LMN] Student Research
Date: Dec. 20, 2014

Ticker: ● HOSE: TRA
Price: ● VND 83,500

Forecast
summary

Recommendation: ● BUY
Price Target: ● VND 100,068

2013

2014F

2015F

2016F

2017F

2018F

2019F

1,682,364

1,850,601

2,220,721

2,731,486

3,359,728

4,199,660

5,249,575

243,183

277,590

333,108

437,038

537,557

671,946

839,932

171,193

207,479

246,518

331,611

405,712

505,392

629,630

6,255

8,409

9,991

13,440

16,443

20,483

25,519

Net sales
(mil. VND)
EBIT
(mil. VND)
Net income
(mil. VND)
EPS (VND)

Highlights

Market profile
Ticker

TRA

Listed on

HOSE

Industry

Pharmaceutical

52 week high (VND)

89,500

52 week low (VND)

71,000

Current price

72,000

Beta

0.3469

Shares outstanding

24,673,300

Market
Capitalization (billion
VND)

1,776

Trading volume

1,210

Dividend

2,000

Dividend yield

0.03

By using two-stage Discounted Cash Flow Model (FCFF, weighted 70%) and Multiple
Analysis (P/E, weighted 30%) valuation method, we recommend a “BUY” position for
TRA stock at the target price of VND 100,068, with a gain of 20% over its current price
(VND 83,500).

At the moment, Traphaco is in the process of going through significant changes in
the company’s policy, namely their sales policy and marketing strategy. In short-term, it is
their first time that sales and profit declined noticeably in 1H2014 at 15% and 21% yoy,
respectively. However, as new policies require a specific amount of time to become
effective, we believe, in the long term, this is an appropriate movement to switch from an
“overheating phase” to a “sustainable phase” of Traphaco.

Traphaco has to face with fierce competition from hundreds of local as well as
foreign pharmaceutical manufacturers in various segments. On the one hand, TRA’s
revenue growth rate will be affected by the fact that their products are not protected by
patents, which allows new industry participants to offer lower priced alternatives. On the
other hand, their two main blockbusters as Boganic and Hoat Huyet Duong Nao are
catching top domestic market share.

The CAGR of Vietnam’s pharmaceutical industry is forecasted to reach to the
level of 16.4% from 2013 to 2018. This estimation is given based on the belief that TRA’s
high-quality product will allow TRA to capitalize on Vietnam’s expanding population and
the higher level of health awareness among the growing middle class.

Business Overview
Name

Traphaco JSC

Address

75...
[LMN] Student Research
[[[[[[
1
Forecast
summary
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
Net sales
(mil. VND)
1,682,364
1,850,601
2,220,721
2,731,486
3,359,728
4,199,660
5,249,575
EBIT
(mil. VND)
243,183
277,590
333,108
437,038
537,557
671,946
839,932
Net income
(mil. VND)
171,193
207,479
246,518
331,611
405,712
505,392
629,630
EPS (VND)
6,255
8,409
9,991
13,440
16,443
20,483
25,519
Highlights
By using two-stage Discounted Cash Flow Model (FCFF, weighted 70%) and Multiple
Analysis (P/E, weighted 30%) valuation method, we recommend a BUY position for
TRA stock at the target price of VND 100,068, with a gain of 20% over its current price
(VND 83,500).
At the moment, Traphaco is in the process of going through significant changes in
the companys policy, namely their sales policy and marketing strategy. In short-term, it is
their first time that sales and profit declined noticeably in 1H2014 at 15% and 21% yoy,
respectively. However, as new policies require a specific amount of time to become
effective, we believe, in the long term, this is an appropriate movement to switch from an
“overheating phase” to a “sustainable phase” of Traphaco.
Traphaco has to face with fierce competition from hundreds of local as well as
foreign pharmaceutical manufacturers in various segments. On the one hand, TRA’s
revenue growth rate will be affected by the fact that their products are not protected by
patents, which allows new industry participants to offer lower priced alternatives. On the
other hand, their two main blockbusters as Boganic and Hoat Huyet Duong Nao are
catching top domestic market share.
The CAGR of Vietnams pharmaceutical industry is forecasted to reach to the
level of 16.4% from 2013 to 2018. This estimation is given based on the belief that TRA’s
high-quality product will allow TRA to capitalize on Vietnam’s expanding population and
the higher level of health awareness among the growing middle class.
Traditional medicine is becoming the current global trend thanks to its natural
origins and friendly impact on human health. In Vietnam, this segment still remains highly
potential with the feasible prospect of suppling for the domestic demand and even for the
oversea demand. To take advantage of this opportunity, Traphaco has developed farming
areas growing herbal materials in the North of Viet Nam in which they focus on their
main raw material as Artichoke, Ming Aralia (Polyscias fruticosa), Polygonum aviculare…
using GACP international standard.
TRA stock price
Recommendation: ● BUY
Price Target: ● VND 100,068
Market profile
Ticker
TRA
Listed on
HOSE
Industry
Pharmaceutical
52 week high (VND)
89,500
52 week low (VND)
71,000
Current price
72,000
Beta
0.3469
Shares outstanding
24,673,300
Market
Capitalization (billion
VND)
1,776
Trading volume
1,210
Dividend
2,000
Dividend yield
0.03
Business Overview
Name
Traphaco JSC
Address
75 Yen Ning, Ba Dinh
Dist, Ha Noi
Main product
lines
Traditional medicine
(54% (2013)) and
Western medicines (11%
(2013))
Main cost
Sales, marketing
expenses, raw materials
Competitive
advantage
Well-managed traditional
raw material, large
distribution network
Main risks
Counterfeited risk;
competition risk
Traphaco Joint Stock Company
Date: Dec. 20, 2014
[Pharmaceutical Industry]
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